If recent trends continue, over 90% of  residences built by mid-century in the Greater Tucson Region will be single-family homes in suburban-style neighborhoods on undeveloped land.  This pattern will be familiar to most of us and will allow us to preserve many of our mountain views and the low-density character of the region.  However, it will also likely increase the amount of time we spend in our cars, negatively impact air quality, require vastly expanded infrastructure systems that need on-going maintenance, and be disruptive to the desert ecosystem.

A question to consider:

Does this future provide the housing choices needed to satisfy potential regional demand? 

While many of us will continue to enjoy the quiet of living in traditional and suburban neighborhoods, there is growing evidence that, nationally at least, an increasing number of people are looking for other residential options. A recent survey from the National Association of Realtors shows that many people are now beginning to prefer single-family homes on smaller lots—or even, in some cases, in condos or apartments—if it affords them the ability to live near activity centers and closer to shops, restaurants, and services. As the Executive Summary from the survey puts it:

…ideally, most Americans would like to live in walkable communities where shops, restaurants, and local businesses are within an easy stroll from their homes and their jobs are a short commute away; as long as those communities can also provide privacy from neighbors and detached, single-family homes.  If this ideal is not possible, most prioritize shorter commutes and single-family homes above other considerations.

Some other interesting findings from the survey show that:

• When selecting a community to live in, Americans prefer
• City — 47%
• Suburban neighborhood with businesses —19%
• Rural area — 40%
• Small Town — 18%
• Suburb with houses only — 12%

• 80% would prefer to live in single-family detached homes, but 20% want other options
• 59% would choose a smaller house if it meant a commute under 20 minutes
• 38% would be willing to live in attached homes or apartments if it meant shorter drives or walking distance to shops and restaurants
• Privacy is the top consideration for housing choice
• Younger unmarried people prefer walkable  compact communities, whereas subdivision-type communities appeal more to middle-aged and married couples

So what is the population necessary to support the shops, restaurants, and businesses in the walkable communities where Americans (and Southern Arizonans) would like to live?   According to the study Creating Walkable Neighborhood Business Districts, in order to support a small neighborhood shopping center—a commercial center with between 30,000 to 50,000 square feet of retail space and featuring a grocery store as well as 10-20 other local shops—roughly 3,300 households are needed.  Assuming that most people are willing to walk 5-10 minutes to a destination (around ¼ -½ mile), providing the population necessary for neighborhood retail within walking distance is at the absolute minimum (though it is likely higher) 3300 households per square mile, or about 5.1 residences per gross acre (households divided by land area including streets etc.)  While 5.1 RAC is a higher residential density than is present in many of the existing parts of the region, it is not completely out of the local character.  What we must decide, is whether we are willing to permit more residences in key areas if it means supporting neighborhood retail and more walkable communities.

What do you think?  Does the NAR national survey also reflect changing preferences in this region?  If so, are we willing to make changes in targeted areas to support more walkable neighborhood business districts?  What about in your neighborhood?  Please share your thoughts.