This question arises in the context of debates about whether the provision of amenities will attract the kinds of people who will interact with others in ways that increase productivity and economic growth. From the perspective of Richard Florida, a critical mass of the kinds of people he defines as “the creative class,” facilitates the sharing of knowledge and key components of both human and cultural capital in ways that not only stimulate innovation, but also attract other members of that class to the community. Members of the creative class are said to be attracted to places that have high levels of diversity and tolerance.

Edward Glaeser also believes that amenities, including the weather play an important role in attracting highly skilled workers. However, climate and consumer oriented amenities are not enough to overcome the attraction of an already established community of peers, such as those that are more likely to be found in economically thriving urban centers.

Of course, more structurally oriented arguments emphasize the role played by the demand for labor generated by an expanding productive sector, perhaps one that reflects a regional competitive advantage. Critics argue that amenities are never enough to attract the creative class—there has to be a supply of well-paying jobs.

Unfortunately, because because economic development in urban areas is generally not the product of well-designed experiments involving random assignment, we are really unable to determine with any confidence what comes first in the causal chain.

Consider the fact that Tucson once ranked third among mid-sized US cities on Florida’s “creativity index,”but Tucsonans continue to be anxious about our abilility to attract and retain young professionals in our community. Despite the fact that many of our highly marketable graduates had developed their knowledge and skills at the University of Arizona, and despite their familiarity with the unique diversity, tolerance, and natural and cultural amenities of the region, their expectations regarding the possibility of their finding a good job in the region have actually been quite low. The loss of this valuable resource is referred to as a “brain drain,” and our performance in this area may explain Tucson’s recent decline in creativity rankings.

Because colleges and universities, especially institutions of the first rank like UA, are so important to the development and support of a creative economy, we need to find ways to make the most of what they have to offer. While we may never discover which comes first, if we don’t find ways to partner more closely with this great university to help generate more attractive employment opportunities, we can be sure that our rankings will continue to decline.

A wisely built environment decreases disease burden on a population.  The main health issues of today (obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular disease) revolve around behavioral choices concerning diet and physical activity.  Physical activity is drastically influenced by our built environment.  Currently, Pima County has a 20% physical inactivity rate (the percentage of adults that do no leisure time physical activity.)The design of a city can either support or discourage activity.  For instance, mixed land use and grid street patterns are associated with higher levels of physical activity.  By providing direct routes to commercial stores, residents of these areas have the option to actively commute.  On the other hand, suburbanization hinders physical activity.  Most suburbs only provide long routes to commercial regions, building a maze of cul-de-sacs and circular street patterns.  The trick to increasing physical activity into a community is to sew it into everyday routines, by building supportive environments.  If you had the ability to walk to the drug store, would you?  If cycling to work took you just as long as driving, would you do it?  With an increase in population, we will need to re-design the structure of region.  Maybe it’s time to consider building a healthy region.

Blog Contributed by IGT Volunteer Michele Scanze

A question to consider:

Does this future provide the housing choices needed to satisfy potential regional demand? 

While many of us will continue to enjoy the quiet of living in traditional and suburban neighborhoods, there is growing evidence that, nationally at least, an increasing number of people are looking for other residential options. A recent survey from the National Association of Realtors shows that many people are now beginning to prefer single-family homes on smaller lots–or even, in some cases, in condos or apartments–if it affords them the ability to live near activity centers and closer to shops, restaurants, and services. As the Executive Summary from the survey puts it:

…ideally, most Americans would like to live in walkable communities where shops, restaurants, and local businesses are within an easy stroll from their homes and their jobs are a short commute away; as long as those communities can also provide privacy from neighbors and detached, single-family homes.  If this ideal is not possible, most prioritize shorter commutes and single-family homes above other considerations.

Some other interesting findings from the survey show that:

• When selecting a community to live in, Americans prefer
• City – 47%
• Suburban neighborhood with businesses –19%
• Rural area – 40%
• Small Town – 18%
• Suburb with houses only – 12%

• 80% would prefer to live in single-family detached homes, but 20% want other options
• 59% would choose a smaller house if it meant a commute under 20 minutes
• 38% would be willing to live in attached homes or apartments if it meant shorter drives or walking distance to shops and restaurants
• Privacy is the top consideration for housing choice
• Younger unmarried people prefer walkable  compact communities, whereas subdivision-type communities appeal more to middle-aged and married couples

So what is the population necessary to support the shops, restaurants, and businesses in the walkable communities where Americans (and Southern Arizonans) would like to live?   According to the study Creating Walkable Neighborhood Business Districts, in order to support a small neighborhood shopping center–a commercial center with between 30,000 to 50,000 square feet of retail space and featuring a grocery store as well as 10-20 other local shops–roughly 3,300 households are needed.  Assuming that most people are willing to walk 5-10 minutes to a destination (around ¼ -½ mile), providing the population necessary for neighborhood retail within walking distance is at the absolute minimum (though it is likely higher) 3,300 households per square mile, or about 5.1 residences per gross acre (households divided by land area including streets etc.)  While 5.1 RAC is a higher residential density than is present in many of the existing parts of the region, it is not completely out of the local character.  What we must decide, is whether we are willing to permit more residences in key areas if it means supporting neighborhood retail and more walkable communities.

What do you think?  Does the NAR national survey also reflect changing preferences in this region?  If so, are we willing to make changes in targeted areas to support more walkable neighborhood business districts?  What about in your neighborhood?  Please share your thoughts.

If you are not familiar with the IGT, we are a non-profit organization convening a public process to create a Vision for the Greater Tucson Region. The Vision is developed by projecting regional population growth trends and deciding where and in what manner that growth should be accommodated. We are not talking only about where the newcomers should live. Instead, we are talking about how to use and direct growth to build a region that provides the choices, resources, and quality of life elements that we desire. Of course, growth in itself is not a solution to our regional issues (in fact, if not done correctly, growth will likely create many more challenges than it solves), and changing our built environment is not a silver bullet. To build a future for this region that many of us aspire to will take concerted and cooperative effort on many fronts.

That said, this does not mean that the way in which we develop and shape growth won’t have very serious impacts on how we live.  Everything from the types of jobs we attract and access to cultural opportunities to commute times and resource consumption is affected to some degree by how we shape our physical environment.  It really provides a foundation and the context in which all other activities occur, even if it doesn’t necessarily determine the character of those activities.

So what about growth?

According to University of Arizona EBR Forecasting and Project Director Marshall Vest, the Tucson Region is expected to add about 500,000 new residents in the next 30 years. This revised forecast for population growth—reflecting the continuing impacts of the Great Recession on the local economy and mobility rates— is lower than IGT’s initial assumptions, but does not fundamentally alter the question being posed, “How should we grow?”

As the economy recovers, it is fully expected that growth will again approach pre-recession levels. In terms of long-range planning, we now have a great opportunity to establish a Vision for the region, so when growth does return, we will be prepared for it and able to position this region to maximize its potential benefits, and to do so without compromising those things that are most important to why we live here.

The Vision for Greater Tucson will ultimately describe a preferred future for this region as we double in size (roughly an additional million people.) The date we arrive at this number is less important than the number itself.  By looking out to that moment, we are seeking to paint a picture of how this region will look at that singular point in the future. This should not be interpreted to mean that we will only begin to make changes 50 to 60 years down the road.  That is the end point.  n order to arrive at that end point, we need to set our direction now and begin to act on it.

If you have ideas or suggestions about how we should grow, or how our future should look, please share them in the comments section. We look forward to hearing from you.

In addition to the high-level of participation and the number of quality maps produced, those more unquantifiable elements of the workshops have been equally remarkable.  Community members from all perspectives and geographies came together to lay out their ideal vision for our future while engaging in conversations about those things that are most fundamental to our quality of life.  Although the primary purpose of the workshop is to place jobs, development, and transportation in the region, each participant has done something more;  they have provided a real example of what it means to make value-based decisions about our community.    Of course, not everyone at every table may have agreed with each other on every topic (nor would we wish them to), but they have been more than able to demonstrate what it means to engage in civil dialogue as they worked through the exercise to produce satisfactory outcomes for their group.  Thank you to everyone who has attended one of these workshops.  We appreciate your efforts.

One more chance!

There is one more Scenario Building Workshop scheduled to be held at Pantano Christian Church on June 7^th.  If you’d like to attend, please register soon on the events page.  Don’t miss out on this unique opportunity.

Imagine Greater Tucson would like to say thank you and acknowledge the time and high-quality, hard work put in to these workshops by all of the dedicated volunteers.  Without their assistance in both table facilitation and event coordination, these workshops would not have been possible, or even imaginable.  Moreover,  the input that they have provided through their feedback has been essential in making these workshops a success.  Thank you for your support.

For those of you who were unable to attend the Big Reveal, fear not, as we will go out to the community in the coming weeks and present on the results of Phase 1; a program we are affectionately calling the Reveal Road Show.  If you and your organization, company or other affiliation would be interested in hosting an IGT speaker to learn more about our Shared Regional Values, our historical trends, and how we can bring them into alignment, please contact our Outreach Coordinator Camila Thorndike camila@imaginegreatertucson.org.  Get the Road Show on your agenda today!

Thank you to everyone who came out to lend your support to this effort.  We hope that you found the Big Reveal to be a stimulating event and are now prepared to take action to build a region that fulfills those aspirations that have been expressed by the community throughout this process.  Also, a special thanks to all the community members who volunteered their time to ensure that the event was such a success.

Thank you to everyone who participated in one of the Community Conversations. The civility you showed in discussing sometimes sensitive issues; the openness you demonstrated in expressing your thoughts and ideas; the depth of your insights; and the breadth of your interests was truly energizing to this process. We feel very privileged to have been able to meet and experience first-hand the wonderful people who make this region unique and special. We’d also like to extend a very special thank you to all those members of the community who volunteered their time and energy to help facilitate, record, or observe one or more of our many Community Conversations. Without their commitment and passion this process would have never been possible.